2012 Moon Island Shopper Accession Referendum

A referendum on the topic of Moon Island joining the newly-founded country Shops Island took place on 1 May 2012. The campaign for the referendum started on 10 April, exactly three weeks before the vote. The Yes side campaigned with the slogan "A Stronger Moon Island in a United Shops Island", arguing that joining Shops Island would strengthen Moon Island military, diplomatically and economically and that becoming part of Shops Island will see the country's economy flourish and living standards grow. On the other hand, the No side campaigned with the slogan "Moon Island - Not for Sale" and accused the leadership of the country of selling out Islanders for their own personal profit and said that Moon Island is better off sovereign and alone.

The Yes campaign had a very comfortable lead throughout the months before the referendum, reaching as high as 65% in some polls. The gap tightened in the weeks before the referendum, however, but the Yes campaign retained their lead in every single poll save one.

In the end, the Yes campaign won, winning around 55% of the vote compared to 45% for the No side - this was declared a decisive victory by Dps04 and Shopper president Chill57181 congratulated the Yes side on their victory and said that Shops Island welcomes Moon Island "to its family". He also said that Shops Island will fully respect the will of the penguins of Moon Island and that Moon Island is well-respected and loved by everyone in Shops.

Following the referendum and the accession of Moon Island into Shops, the economy boomed, business and trade were enhanced and cooperation between Moon Island and other countries in Antarctica was strengthened thanks to the power and projection of the young state. Many have, as a result, argued that entering Shops Island was a great success. On the other hand, for years after the referendum anti-Shopper sentiment in Moon Island grew thanks largely to factors such as Shops Island achieving territorial expansion it has never seen before, Shops Island being involved in numerous wars across Antarctica and, also, thanks to populism and fear-mongering, promoted especially by the Penstubal Post. As a result, for the first time ever, after the referendum, the No (Leave) side took the lead in a few polls in late 2019 and this anti-Shopper and pro-leave sentiment continued to grow in the early 2020s, and Moon Island became an independent state once again in 2027 after the fall of the country in a terrible civil war.

Background
Moon Island's recent history was incredibly tumultuous. Moon Island was an independent nation, governed by its own people, a kingdom whose monarch was Dps the Third following a coup in 1999. Dps the Third's rule over the country was economically successful, although he remained controversial for his usurpation of power and his authoritarian rule. His rule didn't last long, however, and in 2005 Rockhopper discovered the island, launched an invasion against it and successfully overthrew Dps the Third's argument, who later died in Rockhopper's custody. Rockhopper quickly attempted to establish control over the island, but his efforts failed and he was forced to concede to local demands by 2009 to have Dps04 appointed as the island's administrator.

Rockhopper's attempts to quell local demands for independence by appointing a local as the island's administrator failed to calm down the Moon Islanders' desire for independence, and to make matters worse, newly-founded neighboring Shops Island started setting her eyes on Rockhopper's territory. Rockhopper, upon increasing local pressure and fear of possible invasion from Shops Island (however unlikely due to their weakness at the time and disorderliness), was forced to agree to the locals' demands for independence and agreed to leave the island. This was a major victory for the locals, but now that freedom from Rockhopper has been won, a new debate opened up: should Moon Island perhaps join Shops Island instead and become a part of the new Shopper nation?

Rockhopper pledged to respect the penguins' will no matter what choice they make, and Shopper president Chill57181 promised to welcome Moon Island with open arms and offered them a great degree of autonomy. The Moon Island Council, the island's legislature, was unable to reach an agreement on whether to seek full independence or join Shops Island, and so they decided it would be best to hold a referendum in which the population may decide their fate.

Campaign
The question to be asked at the referendum was simple: "Should Moon Island accede to Shops Island as a semi-autonomous state rather than become an independent country?". Two campaigns were formed: The Stronger Moon Island campaign, seeking a "Yes" result at the referendum, and the Not for Sale campaign, seeking a "No" result at the referendum.

The Yes campaign argued that becoming a part of Shops Island would be beneficial for both sides, making Moon Island economically stronger as part of a larger union where it would be the most developed member, and also helping Shops Island become a greater force on the international stage and benefiting the mainland Shoppers. Conversely, the No camapign argued that becoming a part of Shops Island would lead to the penguins of Moon Island once again being robbed of their freedom, just like under the Rockhopper administration they had just gotten rid of, and that Moon Island is better as a small country that can function better than as part of a "superstate like Shops". The No campaign also argued that Shops Island was corrupt and undeveloped, and also said that Shops Island likely won't last more than a year or two and that it would fall apart (their prediction, of course, proved to be completely wrong).

Administrator Dps04 declared neutrality on the issue, but declared that regardless of the result Moon Islanders must pull together and lead their country into progress and prosperity through cooperation and unity.

The Yes campaign initially had a huge lead in the polls, reaching up to 65% in one poll with the No campaign way behind at 28%. This gap closed over the next few weeks, however, as undecided voters started expressing their views and as the No campaign stepped up its action across the country. As the gap started getting closed, the Yes campaign started getting concerned that they indeed might lose, and so they started launching extremely expensive television advertisements all across the country, in particular targeting older voters, who were very skeptical towards newly-formed Shops Island, while those younger were not so much.

The No campaign took the lead in one poll that was done in the last two weeks of campaigning, but the Yes campaign quickly regained their lead thanks to a successful campaign with the older voters, although they were still mostly against accession into Shops Island. The campaign got slightly divisive in its final days, and Dps04 privately expressed concern that Moon Island could be torn apart as a nation if the result ends up being too close.

Result


The exit poll was released immediately upon the closure of voting places at 9 pm and the exit poll showed a victory for the Yes side much stronger than they had anticipated, with the results being 57% Yes and 43% No. The Yes campaign was shocked by the rather decisive victory and celebrations immediately ensued in cities across Moon Island. By midnight, nearly all the results were counted, and the Yes side was declared the official winner with around 55% of the vote and 45% for the No side, with the No side conceding defeat. Dps04 gave a speech shortly before midnight, where he declared that "a new chapter has opened in the history of Moon Island". Shopper president Chill57181 congratulated the Moon Islanders on the result and promised that the Shopper government will not let the Moon Islanders down.

The reasons why the Yes side won were immediately clear once the results had come in: a significant percentage of the Yes vote was from the Freezestonian Autonomous Region, which overwhelmingly voted for union with their Shopper and Freezestonian brethren. Support for the Yes side was also particularly strong in the North, and was weak in the South, which just barely voted in favor of union with Shops. There was also a significant urban-rural divide as well, with Dancing Penguin City voting around 70% in favor of union, Moon Island City around 67% in favor, Wizzint around 73% in favor and rural areas, meanwhile, being almost evenly split, with the No side prevailing in most areas.

Aftermath
Dps04 met with Chill57181 two days following the referendum and both pledged to respect the referendum result and allow Moon Island to join Shops Island. The Shopper and Moon Islander governments formally agreed on the terms of the accession and the status Moon Island would have as part of Shops Island, and in the following days the deal was approved by the Moon Island Council and Moon Island acceded to Shops Island as a semi-autonomous state.

Over the next few months, support for Shopper rule in Moon Island was consolidated and approval of Shopper leadership grew to 80% by the end of the year. The economic reforms of new president Lavender in 2013 were incredibly popular and resonated with voters in Moon Island. Just three months into his presidency, however, the Great Yowien War took place, which, although popular in the Shopper mainland, the Moon Islanders viewed with slight skepticism, but confidence in and approval of the Shopper government remained steady. Over the years, however, anti-Shopper sentiment started building up as a result of incessant wars and Shops Island's rise to a global superpower, which Moon Islanders were not too fond of as they preferred to be small and isolated.

Approval of Shopper leadership dropped to the lower 60s and continued declining sharply over the years. Enter Penstubal, however, in 2018, who uses his Penstubal Post, which has been gaining increasing popularity across Antarctica, to sow discontent with Shopper rule in Moon Island. His attempts work, and for the first time ever a large majority of Moon Islanders, by the early 2020s, started opposing Shopper rule and campaigns started popping up calling for Moon Island to secede, with Lavender promising "that will absolutely never happen, not in a million years". Shops Island fell into civil war in 2026 and the country fell apart, and Moon Island regained its independence without having to shed a single drop of blood for it, just like in 2012.

Trivia

 * This is the first national referendum ever to take place in Moon Island's history.